Peripheral Transcriptomics in Acute and Long-Term Kidney Dysfunction in SARS-CoV2 Infection (preprint)

Background. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV2 infection despite vaccination and leads to long-term kidney dysfunction. However, peripheral blood molecular signatures in AKI from COVID-19 and their association with long-term kidney dysfunction are yet unexplored. Methods. In patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV2, we performed bulk RNA sequencing using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). We applied linear models accounting for technical and biological variability on RNA-Seq data accounting for false discovery rate (FDR) and compared the functional enrichment and pathway results to a historical sepsis-AKI cohort. Finally, we evaluated the association of these signatures with long-term trends in kidney function. Results. Of 283 patients, 106 had AKI. After adjustment for sex, age, mechanical ventilation, and chronic kidney disease (CKD), we identified 2635 significant differential gene expressions at FDR<0.05. Top canonical pathways were EIF2 signaling, oxidative phosphorylation, mTOR signaling, and Th17 signaling, indicating mitochondrial dysfunction and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress. Comparison with sepsis associated AKI showed considerable overlap of key pathways (48.14%). Using follow-up estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measurements from 115 patients, we found that 164/2635 (6.2%) of the significantly differentiated genes were associated with overall decrease in long-term kidney function. The strongest associations were autophagy, renal impairment via fibrosis and cardiac structure/function. Conclusions. We show that AKI in SARS-CoV2 is a multifactorial process with mitochondrial dysfunction driven by ER stress whereas long-term kidney function decline is associated with cardiac structure and function, and immune dysregulation. Functional overlap with sepsis-AKI also highlights common signatures indicating generalizability in therapeutic approaches.

Researching COVID to enhance recovery (RECOVER) adult study protocol: Rationale, objectives and design (preprint)

Importance: SARS-CoV-2 infection can result in ongoing, relapsing, or new symptoms or other health effects after the acute phase of infection; termed post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), or long COVID. The characteristics, prevalence, trajectory and mechanisms of PASC are ill-defined. The objectives of the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Multi-site Observational Study of PASC in Adults (RECOVER-Adult) are to: (1) characterize PASC prevalence; (2) characterize the symptoms, organ dysfunction, natural history, and distinct phenotypes of PASC; (3) identify demographic, social and clinical risk factors for PASC onset and recovery; and (4) define the biological mechanisms underlying PASC pathogenesis. Methods: RECOVER-Adult is a combined prospective/retrospective cohort currently planned to enroll 14,880 adults aged [≥]18 years. Eligible participants either must meet WHO criteria for suspected, probable, or confirmed infection; or must have evidence of no prior infection. Recruitment occurs at 86 sites in 33 U.S. states, Washington, DC and Puerto Rico, via facility- and community-based outreach. Participants complete quarterly questionnaires about symptoms, social determinants, vaccination status, and interim SARS-CoV-2 infections. In addition, participants contribute biospecimens and undergo physical and laboratory examinations at approximately 0, 90 and 180 days from infection or negative test date, and yearly thereafter. Some participants undergo additional testing based on specific criteria or random sampling. Patient representatives provide input on all study processes. The primary study outcome is onset of PASC, measured by signs and symptoms. A paradigm for identifying PASC cases will be defined and updated using supervised and unsupervised learning approaches with cross-validation. Logistic regression and proportional hazards regression will be conducted to investigate associations between risk factors, onset, and resolution of PASC symptoms. Discussion: RECOVER-Adult is the first national, prospective, longitudinal cohort of PASC among US adults. Results of this study are intended to inform public health, spur clinical trials, and expand treatment options.

Exome-wide association study to identify rare variants influencing COVID-19 outcomes: Results from the Host Genetics Initiative (preprint)

Host genetics is a key determinant of COVID-19 outcomes. Previously, the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative genome-wide association study used common variants to identify multiple loci associated with COVID-19 outcomes. However, variants with the largest impact on COVID-19 outcomes are expected to be rare in the population. Hence, studying rare variants may provide additional insights into disease susceptibility and pathogenesis, thereby informing therapeutics development. Here, we combined whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing from 21 cohorts across 12 countries and performed rare variant exome-wide burden analyses for COVID-19 outcomes. In an analysis of 5,048 severe disease cases and 571,009 controls, we observed that carrying a rare deleterious variant in the SARS-CoV-2 sensor toll-like receptor TLR7 (on chromosome X) was associated with a 5.3-fold increase in severe disease (95% CI: 2.75-10.05, p=5.41x10-7). These results further support TLR7 as a genetic determinant of severe disease and suggest that larger studies on rare variants influencing COVID-19 outcomes could provide additional insights.

Proteomic Characterization of Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Hospitalized with SARS-CoV2 Infection (preprint)

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a known complication of COVID-19 and is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Unbiased proteomics using longitudinally collected biological specimens can lead to improved risk stratification and discover pathophysiological mechanisms. Using longitudinal measurements of ~4000 plasma proteins in two cohorts of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we discovered and validated markers of COVID-associated AKI (stage 2 or 3) and long-term kidney dysfunction. In the discovery cohort (N= 437), we identified 413 upregulated and 40 downregulated proteins associated with COVID-AKI (adjusted p <0.05). Of these, 62 proteins were validated in an external cohort (p <0.05, N =261). We demonstrate that COVID-AKI is associated with increased markers of tubular injury (NGAL) and myocardial injury. Using estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) measurements taken after discharge, we also find that 25 of the 62 AKI-associated proteins are significantly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR (adjusted p <0.05). Proteins most strongly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR included desmocollin-2, trefoil factor 3, transmembrane emp24 domain-containing protein 10, and cystatin-C indicating tubular dysfunction and injury. Using longitudinal clinical and proteomic data, our results suggest that while both acute and long-term COVID-associated kidney dysfunction are associated with markers of tubular dysfunction, AKI is driven by a largely multifactorial process involving hemodynamic instability and myocardial damage.

Circulating proteins to predict adverse COVID-19 outcomes (preprint)

Predicting COVID-19 severity is difficult, and the biological pathways involved are not fully understood. To approach this problem, we measured 4,701 circulating human protein abundances in two independent cohorts totaling 986 individuals. We then trained prediction models including protein abundances and clinical risk factors to predict adverse COVID-19 outcomes in 417 subjects and tested these models in a separate cohort of 569 individuals. For severe COVID-19, a baseline model including age and sex provided an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) of 65% in the test cohort. Selecting 92 proteins from the 4,701 unique protein abundances improved the AUC to 88% in the training cohort, which remained relatively stable in the testing cohort at 86%, suggesting good generalizability. Proteins selected from different adverse COVID-19 outcomes were enriched for cytokine and cytokine receptors, but more than half of the enriched pathways were not immune-related. Taken together, these findings suggest that circulating proteins measured at early stages of disease progression are reasonably accurate predictors of adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Further research is needed to understand how to incorporate protein measurement into clinical care.

Acute COVID-19 gene-expression profiles show multiple etiologies of long-term sequelae (preprint)

Two years into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the post-acute sequelae of infection are compounding the global health crisis. Often debilitating, these sequelae are clinically heterogeneous and of unknown molecular etiology. Here, a transcriptome-wide investigation of this new condition was performed in a large cohort of acutely infected patients followed clinically into the post-acute period. Gene expression signatures of post-acute sequelae were already present in whole blood during the acute phase of infection, with both innate and adaptive immune cells involved. Plasma cells stood out as driving at least two distinct clusters of sequelae, one largely dependent on circulating antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the other antibody-independent. Altogether, multiple etiologies of post-acute sequelae were found concomitant with SARS-CoV-2 infection, directly linking the emergence of these sequelae with the host response to the virus.

IL10RB as a key regulator of COVID-19 host susceptibility and severity (preprint)

Background Recent efforts have identified genetic loci that are associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection rates and disease outcome severity. Translating these genetic findings into druggable genes and readily available compounds that reduce COVID-19 host susceptibility is a critical next step. Methods We integrate COVID-19 genetic susceptibility variants, multi-tissue genetically regulated gene expression (GReX) and perturbargen signatures to identify candidate genes and compounds that reverse the predicted gene expression dysregulation associated with COVID-19 susceptibility. The top candidate gene is validated by testing both its GReX and observed blood transcriptome association with COVID-19 severity, as well as by in vitro perturbation to quantify effects on viral load and molecular pathway dysregulation. We validate the in silico drug repositioning analysis by examining whether the top candidate compounds decrease COVID-19 incidence based on epidemiological evidence. Results We identify IL10RB as the top key regulator of COVID-19 host susceptibility. Predicted GReX up-regulation of IL10RB and higher IL10RB expression in COVID-19 patient blood is associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. In vitro IL10RB overexpression is associated with increased viral load and activation of immune-related molecular pathways. Azathioprine and retinol are prioritized as candidate compounds to reduce the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19. Conclusions We establish an integrative data-driven approach for gene target prioritization. We identify and validate IL10RB as a suitable molecular target for modulation of COVID-19 host susceptibility. Finally, we provide evidence for a few readily available medications that would warrant further investigation as drug repositioning candidates.

Fatal breakthrough infection after anti-BCMA CAR-T therapy highlights suboptimal immune response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in myeloma patients (preprint)

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines are highly effective in healthy individuals. Patients with multiple myeloma (MM) are immunocompromised due to defects in humoral and cellular immunity as well as immunosuppressive therapies. The efficacy after two doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination in MM patients is currently unknown. Here, we report the case of a MM patient who developed a fatal SARS-CoV-2 infection after full vaccination while in remission after B cell maturation antigen (BCMA)-targeted chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T treatment. We show that the patient failed to generate antibodies or SARS-CoV-2-specific B and T cell responses, highlighting the continued risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in vaccine non-responders. In the largest cohort of vaccinated MM patients to date, we demonstrate that 15.9% lack SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody response more than 10 days after the second mRNA vaccine dose. The patients actively receiving MM treatment, especially on regimens containing anti-CD38 and anti-BCMA, have lower antibody responses compared to healthy controls. Thus, it is of critical importance to monitor this patient population for serological responses. Non-responders may benefit from ongoing public health measures and from urgent study of prophylactic treatments to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Application of a 27-protein candidate cardiovascular surrogate endpoint to track risk ascendancy and resolution in COVID-19. (preprint)

Background: There is an urgent need for tools allowing the early prognosis and subsequent monitoring of individuals with heterogeneous COVID-19 disease trajectories. Pre-existing cardiovascular (CV) disease is a leading risk factor for COVID-19 susceptibility and poor outcomes, and cardiac involvement is prevalent in COVID-19 patients both during the acute phase as well as in convalescence. The utility of traditional CV risk biomarkers in mild COVID-19 disease or across disease course is poorly understood. We sought to determine if a previously validated 27-protein predictor of CV outcomes served a purpose in COVID-19. Methods: The 27-protein test of residual CV (RCV) risk was applied without modification to n=860 plasma samples from hospitalized and non-hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals at disease presentation from three independent cohorts to predict COVID-19 severity and mortality. The same test was applied to an additional n=991 longitudinal samples to assess sensitivity to change in CV risk throughout the course of infection into convalescence. Results: In each independent cohort, RCV predictions were significantly related to maximal subsequent COVID-19 severity and to mortality. At the baseline blood draw, the mean protein-predicted likelihood of an event in subjects who died during the study period ranged from 88-99% while it ranged from 8-36% in subjects who were not admitted to hospital. Additionally, the test outperformed existing risk predictors based on commonly used laboratory chemistry values or presence of comorbidities. Application of the RCV test to sequential samples showed dramatic increases in risk during the first few days of infection followed by risk reduction in the survivors; a period of catastrophically high cardiovascular risk (above 50%) typically lasted 8-12 days and had not resolved to normal levels in most people within that timescale. Conclusions: The finding that a 27-protein candidate CV surrogate endpoint developed in multi-morbid patients prior to the pandemic is both prognostic and acutely sensitive to the adverse effects of COVID-19 suggests that this disease activates the same biologic risk-related mechanisms. The test may be useful for monitoring recovery and drug response.

Cytotoxic lymphocytes are dysregulated in multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (preprint)

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) presents with fever, inflammation and multiple organ involvement in individuals under 21 years following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. To identify genes, pathways and cell types driving MIS-C, we sequenced the blood transcriptomes of MIS-C cases, pediatric cases of coronavirus disease 2019, and healthy controls. We define a MIS-C transcriptional signature partially shared with the transcriptional response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and with the signature of Kawasaki disease, a clinically similar condition. By projecting the MIS-C signature onto a co-expression network, we identified disease gene modules and found genes downregulated in MIS-C clustered in a module enriched for the transcriptional signatures of exhausted CD8+ T-cells and CD56dimCD57+ NK cells. Bayesian network analyses revealed nine key regulators of this module, including TBX21, a central coordinator of exhausted CD8+ T-cell differentiation. Together, these findings suggest dysregulated cytotoxic lymphocyte response to SARS-Cov-2 infection in MIS-C.

SARS-CoV-2 causes severe alveolar inflammation and barrier dysfunction (preprint)

Infections with SARS-CoV-2 lead to mild to severe coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) with systemic symptoms. Although the viral infection originates in the respiratory system, it is unclear how the virus can overcome the alveolar barrier, which is observed in severe COVID-19 disease courses. To elucidate the viral effects on the barrier integrity and immune reactions, we used mono-cell culture systems and a complex human alveolus-on-a-chip model composed of epithelial, endothelial, and mononuclear cells. Our data show that SARS-CoV-2 efficiently infected epithelial cells with high viral loads and inflammatory response, including the interferon expression. By contrast, the adjacent endothelial layer was no infected and did neither show productive virus replication or interferon release. With prolonged infection, both cell types are damaged, and the barrier function is deteriorated, allowing the viral particles to overbear. In our study, we demonstrate that although SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on the epithelium for efficient replication, the neighboring endothelial cells are affected, e.g., by the epithelial cytokine release, which results in the damage of the alveolar barrier function and viral dissemination.

Federated Learning of Electronic Health Records Improves Mortality Prediction in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 (preprint)

Machine learning (ML) models require large datasets which may be siloed across different healthcare institutions. Using federated learning, a ML technique that avoids locally aggregating raw clinical data across multiple institutions, we predict mortality within seven days in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Patient data was collected from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) from five hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS). Logistic Regression with L1 regularization (LASSO) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models were trained using local data at each site, a pooled model with combined data from all five sites, and a federated model that only shared parameters with a central aggregator. Both the federated LASSO and federated MLP models performed better than their local model counterparts at four hospitals. The federated MLP model also outperformed the federated LASSO model at all hospitals. Federated learning shows promise in COVID-19 EHR data to develop robust predictive models without compromising patient privacy.

Acute Kidney Injury in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

Importance: Preliminary reports indicate that acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 patients and is associated with worse outcomes. AKI in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States is not well-described. Objective: To provide information about frequency, outcomes and recovery associated with AKI and dialysis in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Design: Observational, retrospective study. Setting: Admitted to hospital between February 27 and April 15, 2020. Participants: Patients aged [≥]18 years with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 Exposures: AKI (peak serum creatinine increase of 0.3 mg/dL or 50% above baseline). Main Outcomes and Measures: Frequency of AKI and dialysis requirement, AKI recovery, and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with mortality. We also trained and tested a machine learning model for predicting dialysis requirement with independent validation. Results: A total of 3,235 hospitalized patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. AKI occurred in 1406 (46%) patients overall and 280 (20%) with AKI required renal replacement therapy. The incidence of AKI (admission plus new cases) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit was 68% (553 of 815). In the entire cohort, the proportion with stages 1, 2, and 3 AKI were 35%, 20%, 45%, respectively. In those needing intensive care, the respective proportions were 20%, 17%, 63%, and 34% received acute renal replacement therapy. Independent predictors of severe AKI were chronic kidney disease, systolic blood pressure, and potassium at baseline. In-hospital mortality in patients with AKI was 41% overall and 52% in intensive care. The aOR for mortality associated with AKI was 9.6 (95% CI 7.4-12.3) overall and 20.9 (95% CI 11.7-37.3) in patients receiving intensive care. 56% of patients with AKI who were discharged alive recovered kidney function back to baseline. The area under the curve (AUC) for the machine learned predictive model using baseline features for dialysis requirement was 0.79 in a validation test. Conclusions and Relevance: AKI is common in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, associated with worse mortality, and the majority of patients that survive do not recover kidney function. A machine-learned model using admission features had good performance for dialysis prediction and could be used for resource allocation.

Analysis of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the Mount Sinai Health System using electronic medical records (EMR) reveals important prognostic factors for improved clinical outcomes (preprint)

COVID-19 is a novel threat to human health worldwide. There is an urgent need to understand patient characteristics of having COVID-19 disease and evaluate markers of critical illness and mortality. Objective: To assess association of clinical features on patient outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this observational case series, patient-level data were extracted from electronic medical records for 28,336 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 at the Mount Sinai Health System from 2/24/ to 4/15/2020, including 6,158 laboratory-confirmed cases. Exposures: Confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis by RT-PCR assay from nasal swabs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Effects of race on positive test rates and mortality were assessed. Among positive cases admitted to the hospital (N = 3,273), effects of patient demographics, hospital site and unit, social behavior, vital signs, lab results, and disease comorbidities on discharge and death were estimated. Results: Hispanics (29%) and African Americans (25%) had disproportionately high positive case rates relative to population base rates (p<2e-16); however, no differences in mortality rates were observed in the hospital. Outcome differed significantly between hospitals (Gray's T=248.9; p<2e-16), reflecting differences in average baseline age and underlying comorbidities. Significant risk factors for mortality included age (HR=1.05 [95% CI, 1.04-1.06]; p=1.15e-32), oxygen saturation (HR=0.985 [95% CI, 0.982-0.988]; p=1.57e-17), care in ICU areas (HR=1.58 [95% CI, 1.29-1.92]; p=7.81e-6), and elevated creatinine (HR=1.75 [95% CI, 1.47-2.10]; p=7.48e-10), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (HR=1.002, [95% CI 1.001-1.003]; p=8.86e-5) and body-mass index (BMI) (HR=1.02, [95% CI 1.00-1.03]; p=1.09e-2). Asthma (HR=0.78 [95% CI, 0.62-0.98]; p=0.031) was significantly associated with increased length of hospital stay, but not mortality. Deceased patients were more likely to have elevated markers of inflammation. Baseline age, BMI, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, white blood cell (WBC) count, creatinine, and ALT were significant prognostic indicators of mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: While race was associated with higher risk of infection, we did not find a racial disparity in inpatient mortality suggesting that outcomes in a single tertiary care health system are comparable across races. We identified clinical features associated with reduced mortality and discharge. These findings could help to identify which COVID-19 patients are at greatest risk and evaluate the impact on survival.

Machine Learning to Predict Mortality and Critical Events in COVID-19 Positive New York City Patients (preprint)

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has become the deadliest pandemic in modern history, reaching nearly every country worldwide and overwhelming healthcare institutions. As of April 20, there have been more than 2.4 million confirmed cases with over 160,000 deaths. Extreme case surges coupled with challenges in forecasting the clinical course of affected patients have necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods for achieving this are lacking. In this paper, we present a decision tree-based machine learning model trained on electronic health records from patients with confirmed COVID-19 at a single center within the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. We then externally validate our model by predicting the likelihood of critical event or death within various time intervals for patients after hospitalization at four other hospitals and achieve strong performance, notably predicting mortality at 1 week with an AUC-ROC of 0.84. Finally, we establish model interpretability by calculating SHAP scores to identify decisive features, including age, inflammatory markers (procalcitonin and LDH), and coagulation parameters (PT, PTT, D-Dimer). To our knowledge, this is one of the first models with external validation to both predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients with strong validation performance and identification of key contributors in outcome prediction that may assist clinicians in making effective patient management decisions.

Clinical Characteristics of Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients in New York City (preprint)

ABSTRACT Background: The coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic is a global public health crisis, with over 1.6 million cases and 95,000 deaths worldwide. Data are needed regarding the clinical course of hospitalized patients, particularly in the United States. Methods Demographic, clinical, and outcomes data for patients admitted to five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals with confirmed Covid-19 between February 27 and April 2, 2020 were identified through institutional electronic health records. We conducted a descriptive study of patients who had in-hospital mortality or were discharged alive. Results A total of 2,199 patients with Covid-19 were hospitalized during the study period. As of April 2nd, 1,121 (51%) patients remained hospitalized, and 1,078 (49%) completed their hospital course. Of the latter, the overall mortality was 29%, and 36% required intensive care. The median age was 65 years overall and 75 years in those who died. Pre-existing conditions were present in 65% of those who died and 46% of those discharged. In those who died, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 11.7%, D-dimer was 2.4 ug/ml, C-reactive protein was 162 mg/L, and procalcitonin was 0.44 ng/mL. In those discharged, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 16.6%, D-dimer was 0.93 ug/ml, C-reactive protein was 79 mg/L, and procalcitonin was 0.09 ng/mL. Conclusions This is the largest and most diverse case series of hospitalized patients with Covid-19 in the United States to date. Requirement of intensive care and mortality were high. Patients who died typically had pre-existing conditions and severe perturbations in inflammatory markers.